The Astros keep sliding deeper into the bottom of the barrel, losing three straight to fall eight games back in the AL West race.
The Yankees are barely keeping pace with the Orioles and looking for another solid start from lefty Carlos Rodon.
Meanwhile, Houston starting pitcher Spencer Arrighetti is trying to help turn around this disastrous pitching season from the Astros.
Astros vs. Yankees Prediction
(7:05 p.m. ET, SCHN)
Arrighetti is part of the big problem in Houston.
The Astros rank among the league’s worst in almost every pitching metric, and the 24-year-old rookie has allowed 15 earned runs across 16 innings pitched this year.
However, he’s been bitten by bad luck, with a ridiculously high .438 BABIP and a meager 57% strand rate, two numbers that should regress closer to league averages (.300 and 72%) as the season progresses.
Arrighetti’s underlying statistical profile isn’t half bad, with a 3.74 expected ERA boosted by a 26% strikeout rate.
His stuff isn’t great, and he has trouble with walks, but he’s undervalued compared to the current market.
Rodon isn’t pitching as well as he did with the White Sox and Giants in 2021-2022, but everything looks fine.
The Stuff+ marks are up across his entire arsenal (116 in 2024, 111 in 2023), and he’s maintaining his fastball velocity (95.4 mph on average).
Of greater importance, both bullpens are fully rested, given that no high-leverage relievers were used in yesterday’s 10-3 Yankee win and that both squads had an off-day on Monday.
The Yankees lead all MLB teams in reliever ERA (2.22), as closer Clay Holmes hasn’t allowed a run in 16 appearances while adding 18 strikeouts.
And while the Astros bullpen had a rough start, the Josh Hader-led unit is beginning to lock in, posting a 2.88 ERA over the past fortnight.
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The total for this game has touched 9.5 at some places, which I believe is juiced by Arrighetti’s struggles and two red-hot offenses.
But he will see some positive regression, Rodon should hold his own, and run production in the later innings will prove challenging against two fresh and excellent relief corps.
The Action Network’s PRO model projects only 8.5 runs for this game, giving us a full run of edge over the current market.
Astros vs. Yankees Pick
Under 9.5 (-110, Caesars)