Red Sox vs. Braves is a sneaky underrated interleague matchup.
Boston has the best pitching staff in the American League, while Atlanta still boasts a roster talented enough to win another World Series title.
However, it’s worth mentioning that the Braves lineup is slumping and starting pitcher Chris Sale looks ready to battle his former team for the first time since being traded this past offseason.
I’m banking on a very low-scoring game Wednesday at Truist Park.
Red Sox vs. Braves prediction
(7:20 p.m. ET, NESN)
Sale looks as good as ever.
His last few seasons in Back Bay were littered with injuries, as he tossed only 151 innings from 2020-22. However, he performed relatively well on the field, even if he wasn’t playing like a seven-time All-Star.
Across his first six starts with the Braves, Sale has a 3.44 ERA and a 2.81 expected ERA boosted by a 29% strikeout rate (42 in 36 innings).
His velocity is up across his arsenal and he’s suddenly missing bats at a near career-best level (15.4% swinging-strike rate).
Sale is a pitcher to buy for the foreseeable future, especially in a revenge spot.
Meanwhile, Boston starting pitcher Nick Pivetta is finally healthy again, making his first start since April 3 after suffering a right elbow flexor strain.
Pivetta added a sweeper in June last season, and the new pitch mix transformed the much-maligned Canadian righty.
He’s struck out 35% of batters since last July, the most among pitchers with at least 80 innings during the stretch.
The sweeper grades out highly by the advanced pitching model metrics (125 Stuff+ mark), but it’s especially deadly when paired with his mid-90s high-rising fastball (20” iVB, 99th percentile among starting pitchers).
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It’s always tough to battle Atlanta’s hard-hitting lineup, but Pivetta might catch them at the right time. The Braves have posted a team .558 OPS over the past two weeks, the third-worst mark in baseball.
I feel great about betting on a relatively lower-scoring ballgame between Sale, Pivetta and the slumping Braves.
Yesterday’s Kutter Crawford-Reynaldo Lopez matchup ended 4-2 after the total closed at 8.5 and I’m expecting a similar game script today.
Red Sox vs. Braves pick
Under 8.5 (-115, Bet365)