A smart guy who pays close attention to New York politics said early on that Eric Adams “will be a great mayor until the indictment” — a prediction which, adjusted for circumstances, may well prove prescient.
For now the feds have a target on Hizzoner’s back — and guess who appears to have sensed an opportunity?
Why, Andrew Mark Cuomo, and no surprise there.
The fellow has been at sea for two-plus years now; he’s restless, experienced, a proven fundraiser with a broad range of allies — and everybody knows his name.
Thus Cuomo would be a credible special-election candidate should Adams fall — despite his considerable baggage.
To be clear, the federal probe of Adams’ campaign finances feels like pretty small beer so far.
The mayor has always been a corner-cutter, particularly while in the state Senate, but that has seemed more like petty grift than outright graft — and the courts in recent years have made prosecuting politicians difficult.
Still, there’s blood in the water, and Cuomo, unsurprisingly, appears to have sensed it.
Politico and other sources report that the former governor is polling a run for mayor, with a few questions about Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand tossed in.
An aide — he still has one, which is instructive in itself — denies any interest in a run of any sort. But of course he would, so the question of the moment is: What sort of mayoral candidate would Cuomo make?
Formidable.
Sure, there’s that pinchin’-fannies-and-killin’-grannies rap — the stuff that drove him from Albany in the first place.
But nobody ever went broke underestimating New York’s political attention span — and a special election following a mayoral eviction in the midst of great fiscal turmoil would drive a lot of history into the background.
Plus Adams’ own popularity is cratering right now — perhaps fueling a desire for stability, even at the expense of civility.
And while this may just be anecdote-based wishful thinking, the scandalous left-wing reaction to the atrocities of Oct. 7 seems to have many liberal New Yorkers rethinking their worldview.
If so, hard-left hopefuls like Public Advocate Jumaane Williams — he’d be acting mayor — might suffer. So too, say, Comptroller Brad Lander and wannabes like former mayoral candidate Maya Wiley.
And the adults in the room — Cuomo for sure, but also former comptroller Scott Stringer, among others — stand to prosper.
Plus the City Charter calls for a speedy special election — compressing the process and adding to the value of strong name recognition.
Sure, Cuomo has intensely high negatives. He’s manipulative, opportunistic and a practiced score-settler. Voters know this — but would it be disqualifying, all things considered?
His policy priorities often have been self-serving — hey, if labor wants a $15 minimum wage, who was Cuomo to disagree? — but that generally doesn’t hurt on Election Day.
Thus Cuomo has always enjoyed support from monied special interests — labor, real estate interests and New York’s health care cartel in particular. He’s been popular in the outer boroughs.
And he has been held in electoral regard by influential ethnic blocs — conservative Jews and black voters.
Other potential candidates tick some of those boxes — Stringer in particular — but not all of them.
Not like Cuomo — who, in a ranked-choice special election, would at least be a popular No. 2 choice. That could make the difference.
The next move, obviously, belongs to the Justice Department.
After that, who knows? But don’t discount Andrew Cuomo.