We’ve got two incredible games on the docket Sunday with the Eagles battling the 49ers in the NFC Championship and the Chiefs seeking revenge against the Bengals in the AFC Championship.
That also means a host of player props to sort through in both games, including a pair of props worth targeting on two quarterbacks that could struggle this weekend. Here are our favorite bets to make at BetMGM ahead of the games:
Patrick Mahomes Under 285.5 passing yards (-115)
Am I the only one who thinks Mahomes’ high ankle sprain is still an issue? The betting public immediately faded the Chiefs in the wake of his injury last week injury, but after a few nondescript practice videos and some positive PR out of Kansas City, it feels like folks are expecting a miraculous recovery ahead of Sunday.
I’m not so sure. Mahomes was severely limited after his injury last week, throwing for just 118 yards in 2 ¹/₂ quarters and attempting all 18 of his passes inside the pocket. That’s a problem against this tenacious Bengals defense that loves to bring exotic pressures and force opposing passers to create on the fly — something Mahomes will struggle to do after a week of additional swelling on that right ankle.
Then consider that Mahomes has thrown for fewer than 225 yards in three of his last four games, and he has finished with fewer than 280 yards in each of his three meetings with the Bengals over the last 13 months. This is a bad matchup for Mahomes even when healthy, and I’m highly skeptical of him hitting this mark post-injury.
Brock Purdy Over 0.5 interceptions (-160)
Purdy has been fairly turnover-free in his seven-game stint as the 49ers starter, with just three interceptions and none in his last three weeks. I don’t expect that to last Sunday in a tricky spot against an opportunistic Eagles defense.
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Philadelphia ranked fourth in the regular season in interceptions (17) and made life miserable for Giants quarterback Daniel Jones (109 yards, one interception) last week in the divisional round, sacking him five times and baiting him into difficult throws right to the team’s vaunted secondary. The Eagles are also among the best in the NFL at defending the middle of the field, where Purdy attempts over 60 percent of his passes.
That’s a recipe for disaster for the 2022 seventh-round pick, whose inexperience could show in the biggest game of his life. Only four rookies have ever started a conference championship game; those four combined for nine interceptions with all being picked at least once. Expect Purdy to join that club on Sunday.
Isiah Pacheco Over 48.5 rushing yards (-115)
Pacheco has been undervalued for weeks as the Chiefs’ primary back, and with Mahomes clearly limited by injury, this is the perfect spot for Pacheco in his second meeting with the Bengals.
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Since taking over as the team’s primary ball-carrier in Week 10, Pacheco has averaged 72.8 rushing yards on a stellar 5.3 yards per carry and racked up at least 58 yards in nine of those 10 contests. That includes a 66-yard performance in a Week 13 loss to the Bengals, who surrendered a combined 138 yards on the ground that day.
I could see a similar story on Sunday with Mahomes clearly not at 100 percent, forcing Pacheco into a bigger role as the team’s go-to rusher between the tackles. As long as oddsmakers continue to discount Pacheco’s obvious talent and opportunity, we can continue to cash those tickets on the Chiefs’ bruising back.