Cincinnati Bengals (+1) over KANSAS CITY CHIEFS; Under 48:
My usual hesitancy about selecting the Chiefs is off the table this week. That would be the point spread. K.C. is 5-12-1 against the number this season including last week’s non-covering victory over the Jaguars.
The Chiefs are merely a one-point home favorite here because of Patrick Mahomes’ ankle injury. Seven of the Chiefs’ 27 points came on a 98-yard drive led by Chad Henne when Mahomes was being treated for his injury.
Kansas City scored just 10 points in the second half — though an ailing, taped-up Mahomes did manage a 75-yard drive capped by a touchdown pass to Marquez Valdes-Scantling after the Jaguars had closed the gap to three points. Of course, the K.C. defense allowed a late field goal to give Jacksonville a backdoor cover, because that’s what the Chiefs do.
Get a $50 Bonus Bet + up to $1K Back in Bonus Bets! with code NPBONUS50
21+. New customers only. AZ, CO, CT, IA, IL, IN, MI, NJ, PA, TN, VA, WV only. Tu0026amp;C apply
First bet up To $1,250 On Caesars
New players only, 21+. Available in AZ, CO, IA, IL, IN, KS, LA, MI, NJ, NY, TN, VA, WV only. Full T&C apply.
Get a No Sweat First Bet up to $1000!
New users only, 21 or older. Available in AZ, CT, CO, IA, IL, IN, KS, LA, MD, MI, NJ, NY, PA, TN, VA, WV, WY only. Full T&C apply.
- Check out more of the Best Sportsbook Promo Codes
One hidden stat from that game that could matter this week: Though both teams rushed for 144 yards, the Jaguars got theirs on just 19 carries. Some of that came on takeoffs by Trevor Lawrence and an 18-yarder by receiver Christian Kirk. Yet, Travis Etienne Jr. and JaMycal Hasty rushed for a combined 7.0 yards per carry. Ground yards are available against this Chiefs defensive front and could be the key to keeping Chris Jones and Frank Clark off Joe Burrow’s back.
You just read the two words that are the most important element of this selection: Joe Burrow. For my money he’s the best quarterback in the NFL today, and he has the 5-1 postseason record to show it.
He also rides into Kansas City with no fear of the Chiefs or their tomahawk-chopping fans. Burrow is 3-0 against the Chiefs, including the title-game win last year at Arrowhead, and has thrown eight touchdown passes against one interception.
Though Mahomes’ ankle does not appear on Kansas City’s injury report, the lasting effects of any decreased mobility should be felt throughout the game. In the regular-season meeting, Travis Kelce was limited to four receptions for 56 yards and no scores. If Bengals defensive coordinator Lou Anarumo can keep Kelce quiet again and Mahomes isn’t nimble enough to escape a few sacks and turn them into first-down scrambles or magical throws, then the walls will start to close in a little on the Chiefs’ offense.
Betting on the NFL?
- Read our expert guide on how to bet on the NFL
- Check out the best NFL betting sites
- Get the latest Super Bowl 2023 Odds.
- Get the BetMGM Bonus Code
The Chiefs have a bit of an edge, having played the early Saturday game last week with no travel. The Bengals played late-afternoon Sunday and took a modest trip west. The bigger factor will be the weather, which is the reason I’m on the Under. The daytime high of 25 is expected to drop as low as 9 degrees at night, with winds from 8-20 mph. That could affect Burrow some, muting the downfield threats of Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins a bit. But the chill and rock-hard field figure to make things tougher on Mahomes and his bad ankle.
Bengals, 27-20
Last week: 4-4. 2-2 sides and 2-2 totals
Lock of the week: Bengals (Locks 10-10 in 2022-23).